D'Anieri,
P. (2012). Ukrainian foreign policy from independence to inertia. Communist
and Post-Communist Studies.
The paper provides a historical overview of Ukrainian
foreign policy, and claims that the passivity of Ukrainian foreign policy
results from the combination of three factors: the external balance between the
pulls of Russia and the West; an internal balance between Ukraine’s regions,
and an internal balance between forces of democracy and authoritarianism. The
paper makes a prediction that Ukraine might experience a drift towards Russia
as a result of the change in balance between domestic political forces or
between international forces (since the change in regional divisions is
unlikely to happen).
Ukraine’s relations with NATO started when the country
joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace, after it negotiated denuclearization with
Russia and the U.S. in 1994. The policy of close interaction with NATO and the
U.S. started by the first president of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk was continued by
the second president Leonid Kuchma, who also rejected any form of political or
economic integration with Russia or the CIS. Additionally, Kuchma signed a
Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and Russia,
thus recognizing the sovereignty of Ukraine, including the sovereignty over the
city of Sevastopol, home of the Black Sea Fleet. However, several domestic
policy issues and well as Ukraine’s selling Kolchuga anti-aircraft systems to
Iraq in violation of the UN arms embargo slowed down the process of
Euro-integration. After the Orange Revolution, Ukraine’s foreign policy gained
new traction towards the West, however,
failures of the coalition government in the domestic policy arena and the
inability to carry out effective reforms, failed to advance the formal status
of Ukraine-EU and Ukraine-NATO relations. Victor Yanukovych, who became the
president of Ukraine in 2010, has moved Ukraine toward a more Russian model of
politics. He also signed an extended lease on the Sevastopol naval base to
Russia, thus signaling his foreign policy preferences.
Overall, Ukraine’s relations with NATO have always been a
subject of counter-pressure from Russia, although Russia has been less strident
regarding Ukrainian relations with the European Union. At the same time,
Ukraine has been a low priority in the West, and the combination of these two
factors slowed down Ukraine’s integration intentions. The regional divisions
exacerbate this problem, since there is no consensus between Ukraine’s East and
West regarding the aims of the foreign policy. Moreover, the Ukrainian public,
although generally favorable towards the EU, has quite a negative perception of
the idea of joining NATO. Thus, public opinion polling showed that only a
minority of Ukrainians support NATO membership, meaning that a move toward
membership would have to be enacted by the leadership over the objection of
most Ukrainians – that does not seem a very realistic policy scenario. D’Anieri
adds that these factors, combined with the underdeveloped state institutions,
prevalent corruption, and energy dependence upon Russia, are unlikely to result
in successful foreign policy direction towards NATO or EU. Thus, although
Ukraine has committed itself to military
reform, and there is some evidence of efforts in this direction (such as the
appointment of a civilian defense minister), generally speaking, deeper reforms
such as improving transparency in military procurement, developing a
non-commissioned officer corps, and moving toward a professional military, remain
stalled. Hence, Ukraine’s own passivity leaves the country’s foreign policy at
the mercy of other external actors.
Tokar,
L. (2010). The Ukrainian Perspective on Security in the Black Sea Region:
International Cooperation and Counter-Trafficking in the Black Sea Region. In
W. D. W. Fiona Houston, Derek M. Robinson (Ed.), Black Sea Security (pp.
75-79): IOS Press.
The paper argues that Ukraine has a particularly
important place in the Black Sea security. Thus, Ukraine’s geographical
position between East and West and its proximity to Turkey make it a territory
for the illegal transmission of narcotics, weapons and explosive devices.
Hence, Ukraine should be included in all regional counter-trafficking
initiatives. The paper also argues that none of the frozen conflicts in the
Black Sea region could be solved without Russia’s constructive participation,
and the regional collaboration is the key for coordinating regional
transportation and communications, as well as countering the illicit
trafficking.
The paper argues that the security environment of the
Black Sea region is directly subjected to the strategic balance between Russia
and Euro-Atlantic West in their efforts to promote their competing interests
within the region. The paper looks at the security infrastructure of the Black
Sea region through two dimensions: the border between the Euro-Atlantic
security system and the Russian infrastructure of security, and the Black Sea
as part of the border between Europe and the Middle East. The author argues
that despite a number of controversial issues in the region, military conflict in the region is unlikely
since neither Russia, nor the West are ready to resume a military arms race, or
any other kind of armed hostilities in the observable future. Thus,
Transdnietrsia is the only territory of the eastern Black Sea region, where
Russia has indirect military presence. Another key player in the Black Sea
region is Turkey, whose presence has been ensuring the counterweight to the
Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The paper also argues that the issue of energy security
in the region represents a major conflict of interest between Russian and most
other countries of Central and Eastern Europe (including the Black Sea region).
Therefore, the main strategic task for the countries in the region affected by
this conflict is to seal the route of Caspian-Central Asian energy to the
European market, and possibly to re-direct this energy through the channels of
Russian monopoly supplies. In this regard, the strategic control over the Black
Sea region is the key element in the success of such a plan.
Aron,
L. (2008). Russia’s Next Target Could Be Ukraine. Wall Street Journal.
The article explores the thesis of whether the Russian
occupation of Georgian territories after the 2008 war was a singular event, or a military precedent
that could be replicated in Ukraine. Thus, according to the author, Ukraine has
already ‘angered’ Russia by pursuing the course of democratic reforms and
moving towards the European-style politics. Thus, during the NATO summit in
Bucharest, when both Ukrainian and Georgian NATO MAPs were rejected, Mr. Putin
made a speech in which he questioned the very sovereignty of Ukraine. Additionally,
in 2006 pro-Russia protests caused the cancellation of Ukraine-NATO Sea Breeze
military exercises, setting Ukraine apart from NATO.
Similarly to Georgia, Russia has a vested interest in
Ukraine because nearly one in five Ukrainian citizens is ethnically Russian,
especially in the Eastern part and in Crimea. In fact, the article claims, a
number of Russian politicians travelled to Crimea to show their support to the
ethnic Russian population of the peninsula, and it is not a rare occurrence of
handing out Russian passports through the Russian consulate in Simferopol. Thus,
the article asks, could Ukraine be the next target for Russia, following their
recent success in Georgia?
Simon,
J. (2009). Ukraine Against Herself: To Be Euro-Atlantic, Eurasian, or
Neutral? : Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense
University.
The article discussed Ukraine’s dual orientation in its
foreign policy agenda: the desire to be part of the Euro-Atlantic community (EU
and NATO) and gravitating towards Eurasia (Russia and CIS). Considering these
divisions and the lack of national consensus on the issue, the author calls the
new U.S. administration to keep open the possibility of Ukraine’s membership in
NATO but for the time being encourage Ukraine to follow the model of Finland –
a nonaligned Partner for Peace. The author argues that by nurturing political
stability in Ukraine, the United States will enhance the country’s value to the
Alliance in the long-term.
The paper argues that during the time of Ukraine’s
independence the country did not gain popular support for NATO integration, as
evidenced by public opinion polls showing that while 45 per cent of Ukrainians
support EU integration, only 20 per cent support NATO integration. The author also
analyzes the political support of NATO membership for Ukraine by looking at the
political platforms of the major Ukrainian political parties represented in the
Ukrainian Parliament. He finds that in the 1998 parliament only the People’s
Movement of Ukraine (with less than 10 per cent of seats in the Parliament) supported
NATO integration, in the 2002 parliament only Our Ukraine (that gained 23.6 per
cent of seats) was in favor of NATO integration, and in the 2006 parliament
only Our Ukraine again was supporting NATO (however, this time it gained only
18 per cent of the seats). Thus, although Ukraine was the first country in the
CIS to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace in 1994, it has not made substantial
progress or sufficient political commitment to NATO.
At the same time, the levels of actual military and
technical collaboration between Ukraine and NATO are very high, and Ukraine
participated in many UN peacekeeping missions. These collaborations result in
greater defense and military capacity of Ukraine, and in some cases, also bring
substantial revenues for the Ukrainian armed forces. Hence, it is plausible
that for professional reasons a higher percentage of Ukrainian servicemen
support NATO integration than is found in the wider population. Overall, the
article concludes that the prospects of Ukrainian membership in Euro-Atlantic
structures would remain uncertain, in part because of Russia’s opposition, in
part because of ambivalence among NATO and EU members, and in part because of
divisions within Ukraine itself. Hence, the most promising and adequate task
for the U.S. would be not to foster NATO
membership but to nurture Ukraine’s political stability while keeping its
Euro-Atlantic options open.
Cohen,
A., & Irwin, C. (2006). US Strategy in the Black Sea Region. The Russian
and Eurasian Studies, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis International Studies
Center.
This paper addresses a broad scope of the U.S. interests
in the Black Sea region including energy transit, security, counterterrorism,
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the traffic in drugs,
weapons, and people. Particularly, the Black Sea region is viewed as a
launching platform for military, reconstruction, and stabilization operations
in Afghanistan, Iraq, and possibly Iran, as well as for the protection of
energy transfers between the Caspian region and the West. Hence, despite the
importance of other foreign policy issues, the Black Sea question deserves
proper attention from the U.S. At the same time, international collaboration in
the Black Sea region in all these strategic areas is complicated by the fact
that the Black Sea region is a patchwork of overlapping civilizations and
spheres of influence; it is also a nexus of cultures, international trade,
various ideas and influences. Additionally, the U.S. presence in the Black Sea
region currently has the support of Bulgaria and Romania, but U.S. relations
with Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine are on shaky ground.
The paper calls for specific policy measures conducive to
the improved security and collaboration environment in the region including
coordinating U.S. and EU foreign policy in the region and increasing NATO
cooperation with non-NATO countries through the Partnership for Peace (including
offering technical and training assistance in security areas and strengthening
bilateral military ties with Ukraine); conducting trilateral military exchanges
Bulgaria-Romania-Turkey; encouraging multilateral regional collaboration
through the regional security organizations; including regional security
structures in NATO military and disaster preparedness exercises; strengthening
U.S. alliances with Bulgaria and Romania; urging Russia to lift sanctions
against Georgia; and expanding bilateral trade agreements with the Black Sea
States.
Stephen
J. Blank. (2010). Wanted: A Strategy for the Black Sea.
This article is a warning to U.S. policymakers regarding
potentially missed opportunities in the Black Sea region. The author points our
attention to the U.S. mistakes in Iran and Kyrgyzstan, when the U.S. focused
too much on the reigning government and overlooked the opposition forces in the
case of Iran, and did not provide crucial support in a timely manner for the
democratic revolutionary movement in Kyrgyzstan. Hence, the U.S. should learn
from these strategic defeats by looking seriously at the multitude of policy
issues arising in the Black Sea region, and getting itself involved in such
issues as the energy transfer from Central Asia to the West, Ukraine’s
potential subordination to Russia’s foreign policy goals by allowing Russian
Black Sea fleet on Ukrainian territory until 2042, unresolved frozen ethnic
conflicts in the region, and other pressing issues altering the geopolitical
balance in the region.
Shelest,
H. (2009). Threats to the National and European Security in the Black Sea
Region: Comparison of the Black Sea Synnergy and Reality. Presentation at
the General Assembly of the CPMR Balkan and Black Sea Commission. Retrieved
from niss.od.ua
The paper recognizes the Black Sea region as having a
unique potential for prosperity, economic development, and energy related
collaborative projects. At the same time, the instability resulting from
regional conflicts (South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transdnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh)
undermines the security in the region by fostering all kinds of criminal
activity, terrorism and illegal migration. Hence, these conflicts need to be
addressed collectively and in a timely manner. Aside from ‘frozen conflicts’,
the Black Sea region suffers from such issues as the increasing number of
refugees and displaced persons, Russia’s interventions in the internal affairs
of GUAM states, threats of undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine,
trans-border organized crime, impossibility to guarantee the security of the
energy resources transportation from Caspian region and other collaborative
projects, drugs and human trafficking, illicit arms trade, among others. Finally,
the paper cautions the insufficient involvement of the European Union in the
security matters in the Black Sea region, with only exception of the 2007 Black
Sea Synergy – the first official document dedicated to the security issues in
the region. However, greater collaboration at the international level is needed
to tackle the multitude issues in the region.
Sanders,
D. (2007). US Naval Diplomacy in the Black Sea. Sending Mixed Signals. Naval
war college review, 60(3), 61-72.
Naval diplomacy is an institutional mechanism for
signaling national interests in a particular region by supporting allies,
deterring potential enemies, protecting interests, and upholding international
law. The article is dedicated to discussing the role of US naval diplomacy in
the Black Sea region by presenting the results of a case study of American
naval involvement in the region during the preparation for a joint
U.S.-Ukrainian multinational Sea Breeze exercise in summer of 2006. The author
argues that in this specific case naval diplomacy was counterproductive by
failing to produce the desired outcomes, and instead producing unintended and
unforeseen damage by exacerbating already poor relations between Russia and
Ukraine.
The main purpose of the US presence in the Black Sea
region is the coalition building intended to secure foreign policy objectives (not
by threatening the potential adversaries but by influencing the behavior of
allies and friendly bystanders). Since 1997, Sea Breeze has been an important
vehicle for such coalition building activity. While the main goal of the 2006
exercises was to improve cooperation between countries in the region, the other
purpose was to politically support the legitimacy of Ukrainian post Orange
Revolution government and its policy objective with regard to NATO membership. However,
both the U.S. European Command and the U.S. embassy in Kyiv ended up
overlooking the political context – Ukrainian parliamentary elections that were
held in spring of 2006. The elected parliament resembled a newly adopted
coalition form of government, where major political parties elected to the
parliament had to form a coalition and agree on the prime minister and other
major cabinet appointments. Due to the inability to form such coalition,
Ukrainian politicians put the Ukrainian parliament and government in stalemate.
As a result, the Parliament failed to authorize the Sea Breeze drills, although
the U.S. ship with materials and equipment had already arrived to Crimea. This
failure was used by the Ukrainian opposition forces who called governmental
actions in question, thus undermining the legitimacy of the post Orange
Revolution regime. Hence, although later in the summer of 2006 the Parliament
finally managed to meet and authorize the exercises, the political atmosphere
had already been poisoned.
The situation also caused the spread of mass protests by
people living in Crimea against an attempt by NATO to establish a presence in
the Black Sea. In fact, the public perceived the exercises as a NATO rather
than a multilateral project, and a U.S. operation that took hold rather than a mutual
project by several states. This had a negative effect on already suspicious
views of many Ukrainians regarding NATO and Ukraine’s membership in the
organization. The opposition party immediately used this incident to slow down Ukraine’s
course towards NATO. In the end, the Ukrainian policy towards NATO membership
had been fundamentally altered. Moreover, the failure of the Sea Breeze 2006
exacerbated already difficult relations between Ukraine and Russia.
The article concludes by suggesting that future
preparations for military exercises in the Black Sea region must consider
cultural, social, and political factors existing in the countries involved, the
changing political environment, and a broader geopolitical context. Being aware
of these factors would help preventing the problem from occurring in the first
place. Finally, developing and implementing vigorous
informational and public awareness campaigns to support the exercises would be
particularly useful in the region where such exercises face significant public
opposition.
Lada
Roslycky and Jos Boonstra. (2007). Ukraine: Changing Governments and Persistent
Security Concerns in the Region. In B. T. Pieter Marius Emile Volten (Ed.), Establishing
Security and Stability in the Wider Black Sea Area: IOS Press.
The book chapter discusses the position of Ukraine as a
crucial country in the affairs of the Wider Black Sea Area (WBSA), the country
that is at the center of a number of international disputes and tensions that
relate to the Black Sea and its immediate neighbors - Russia, Romania and
Moldova. The disputes discussed in this work include: the Tuzla-Kerch-Azov
Affairs; Ukraine and its role as the major energy transition country in the
region; the status of the Russian Black Sea Fleet; territorial disputes with Romania
over Serpents Island and the Danube; and Ukrainian involvement in the Moldovan
Transdnistrian conflict. Considering the time of publication, the chapter is
dedicated to discussing the changes in Ukrainian foreign policy after the
Orange Revolution and the country’s course towards EU and NATO memberships. The
authors acknowledge the importance of Ukraine-NATO relations but they also
mention negative public sentiments towards NATO, and call such perceptions the
result of an outdated, Soviet perception of international security institutions
as hampering friendly relations with Russia. Many of the themes discussed in
this chapter are no longer relevant because of the more recent political
changes in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the security issues outlined in the chapter
are still crucially important, and the analysis presented is a very valuable
historical overview of these issues and the role of Ukraine in their
resolution.