Sanders,
D. (2012). Between Rhetoric and Reality: The Decline of Russian Maritime Power
in the Black Sea? Mediterranean Quarterly, 23(4), 43-68.
Russia’s interests in the
Black Sea, Sanders argues, can be explained by the historical importance of
Crimea and the port of Sevastopol. In particular, for Russia, the Black Sea
provides means to advance, protect, and demonstrate its power status. Russia also
maintains its preeminent position as one of the most powerful states in the
Black Sea, and extends its powers into the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean, and
beyond.
The author examines Russia’s
maritime power in the Black Sea region by analyzing the prospects of Russian
government’s recent plans to modernize Russian Black Sea Fleet and increase its
military and technical capacity. Maritime power is defined as the varied
military and nonmilitary means required to advance the diverse array of
political objectives that states seek to achieve in the maritime domain. Since
maritime power is a subset of military power, the military assets and
capabilities a state has will affect and shape its ability to use the sea for
political effect. Nonmilitary assets in this particular case include Russia’s
access to maritime infrastructure in Sevastopol as well as the relations with
Ukraine and other countries in the region. Such qualitative indicators as
personnel training and morale serve as important predictors of Russia’s
maritime power, alongside with the quantitative measures of the maritime power.
The author’s analysis of
quantitative and qualitative factors of maritime power demonstrates that
Russia’s maritime power in the Black Sea region is unlikely to increase.
According to Sanders, Russia not only will have significantly fewer maritime
platforms in the Black Sea, but its ability to use the maritime domain will
also be compromised by ongoing qualitative problems and poor relations with key
regional actors, such as the United States and littoral states such as Georgia
and Romania. The Black Sea Fleet will continue to have significant gaps in core
capabilities, such as air support, despite the efforts to modernize it. Even if
Russia operates a relatively small but powerful navy, its maritime power could
still be compromised by the lack of investment in support elements, such as air
and land forces. Additionally, resupply and upgrade of the Russian fleet are
greatly dependent upon its relations with Ukraine, which introduces a degree of
uncertainty. Finally, the low pay, inadequate pensions and lack of housing
options for navy personnel are significantly lowering the morale of the
personnel. All these issues have a negative impact on the overall Russia’s
maritime power and hamper the prospects of its expansion.
Sanders,
D. (2007). Rhetoric and Reality: Can Ukraine Create an Effective Navy to
Protect its Interests in the Black Sea? European security, 16(2),
143-161.
The paper argues that an
efficient and well run Ukrainian coastal navy that is inherently defensive in
its orientation can maintain good order at the sea and protect Ukraine’s
security as well as the stability and security in the region. Although since
the Orange Revolution Ukraine has been developing a balanced, flexible and
deployable coastal navy able to engage in a full spectrum of defense
activities, the continued progress is likely to be hampered by the high cost of
naval transformation, the challenges of democratic consolidation and friction
between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has several
strategic interests in the Black Sea Region including commercial, energy and
security concerns. The Black Sea serves as a transit route for Ukrainian goods
to European and international markets; Ukraine has an interest in protecting
and exploring drilling rights in the continental shelf; and an effective
coastal navy would allow Ukraine to protect its coastal waters from the
consequences of “frozen” regional conflicts (the rise of terrorism, organized
crime, trafficking). Thus, Ukraine is not seeking to compete with other naval
powers, instead its aims are to develop an efficient and effective coastal navy
that is inherently defensive and can maintain its international obligations. In
this respect, Ukraine’s participation in naval exercises and peacekeeping
missions with NATO members is important for Ukraine’s political and military
goals.
Ukraine’s naval reform
pursues three main goals: developing coastal capabilities; developing and
training naval personnel; and developing an adequate naval support
infrastructure. However, as this paper argues, there is likely to be a gap
between these objectives and the reality of the reform. Firstly, the ongoing friction
between Russia and Ukraine over the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is
likely to slow down the naval reform. Secondly, substantial progress in naval
transformation is dependent on Ukraine’s successful transition to a market
economy, and poor economic progress in Ukraine will constrain the ability of
the government to engage in naval reform. Thirdly, the challenges of democratic
consolidation after the Orange Revolution are likely to hamper the naval
transformation.
Sanders,
D. (2012). Ukraine's Maritime Power in the Black Sea— A Terminal Decline? The
Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 25(1), 17-34.
This paper uses the
literature on maritime power to explore how Ukraine’s ability to use the sea
declined significantly over the last five years. The author argues that chronic
underfunding of Ukraine’s military transformation, recent decisions taken by
the government to extend the Russia’s lease of Sevastopol and to declare its
non-alignment status, and ongoing domestic political instability have all
damaged Ukraine’s maritime power. Poor military assets is only one contributor
to Ukraine’s problems; such non-military factors as Ukraine’s ability to use
and control its maritime infrastructure in Sevastopol and the continued Russian
military presence also worsen Ukraine’s prospects to enhance its maritime power
in the Black Sea Region. The paper also discusses the importance of
international military exercises that make up almost a quarter of military
training in Ukraine. Although the number of exercises increased over time,
political instability diminishes the prospects of conducting such exercises on
a systematic basis and thus limits Ukraine’s ability to take a full advantage
of these opportunities. The slow process of state building and domestic
instability are the major internal structural obstacles to successful military
and navy reforms in Ukraine.
The paper concludes that unless
the Ukrainian government revisits its foreign policy goal of non-alignment or
invests significantly in the Ukrainian navy over the next few years, both of
which are unlikely, it will lose its capability to independently operate in and
protect its maritime domain. Even the improved relations with key players on
the Black Sea such as Turkey and the United States will not fully compensate
for the decline in Ukraine’s maritime power.
Japaridze,
T. (2010). The Black Sea - a Key Strategic Corridor In F. Houston, W. D. Wood
& D. M. Robinson (Eds.), Black Sea Security: International Cooperation
and Counter-trafficking in the Black Sea Region (Vol. 74, pp. 17-23): IOS
Press.
The chapter highlights the
strategic importance of the Black Sea region as a strategic corridor between
Europe, Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East. According to the author, the
region is not just a distinct locale with its own strategic identity but rather
a junction point where the convergent vectors of strategic dynamics originating
outside the region come together and could significantly alter the way the
Black sea countries and other states view future security challenges and
opportunities. In this region history, culture, politics, prejudices,
psychology, collective and institutional memory are deeply intertwined. At the
same time, there are a few notable problems in the region that require
collective action to be resolved. These problems include frozen conflicts,
loose or even nonexistent customs and border controls in many of the
post-Soviet territories, and the role of the region as a transit zone for the
illegal movement of goods and people. Hence, tackling these issues is an
important precondition of establishing and maintaining the regional security.
Wood,
D. (2010). Executive Summary: Prospects for Black Sea Security Cooperation. In
F. Houston, W. D. Wood & D. M. Robinson (Eds.), Black Sea Security:
International Cooperation and Counter-trafficking in the Black Sea Region
(Vol. 74, pp. 3-8): IOS Press.
The Black Sea Region is a
critical strategic corridor between East and West with major security
challenges including energy supply, illicit trafficking, unresolved regional
conflicts in Georgia with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia with Chechnya,
Moldova with Transdnistria, Turkey with the Kurds, and neighboring conflicts in
areas such as Iraq and Iran. The author argues that security in the region is
no longer just a military issue, as it has been characterized by the
uncontrollable proliferation of technology, a growing gap between rich and poor
countries and the information revolution. Some of the specific issues requiring
urgent address include: East-West energy traffic characterized by political
instability; East-West smuggling of counterfeit goods; East-West illicit drugs
traffic and West-East drugs persecution traffic; East-West human traffic; radiological
and nuclear materials traffic; and North-South improvised explosives devices
traffic.