Sunday, May 8, 2011

Russian-Chinese and Central Asian news this week

Russian-Chinese Relations - Two pieces of news this week indicate two contradictory directions of Russian-Chinese relations.

Friday China and Russia agreed Friday to promote the steady growth of their bilateral strategic partnership over the next decade. That pledge was made during a meeting between visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Yang said Chinese President Hu Jintao would visit Russia later this year and celebrate the 10th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and Russia. This year also marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Yang said China is willing to cooperate with Russia and other SCO members. Lavrov said a growing bilateral strategic partnership between Russia and China serves the interests of both sides. Also, according to Lavrov at the concluding news conference, Russia and China would “coordinate their actions” in the UN Security Council and beyond to support the “soonest possible stabilization of the situation” in North Africa and the Middle East.

At the same time, however, China is drawing Russia into an oil war. Beijing seems to have seriously expected to save money on buying Russian oil. Therefore, the Chinese state oil and gas corporation CNPC unilaterally reduced the payments for Russian hydrocarbons early this year. China believes that the transportation of oil should be at a much cheaper rate than their Russian counterparts claimed, and thereby intends to ask for a discount of 7% on imported Russian raw materials. Thus, the total amount of "discount" on Russian oil will be about $ 30 billion over 20 years, which is not profitable for Russia at all. However, the Russians have made no concessions. "The key to oil" in the government, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, in late April said that the situation can be resolved in court. On the other hand, Russia is not ready to spoil its relations with a strategic partner such as China. This is especially important on the eve of the signing of contracts for the supply of Russian gas to China. One way or another, according to unofficial information, Igor Sechin plans to meet with his Chinese counterpart Wang Qishan to discuss the conflict in late May. Whatever the outcome of negotiations will be, China has indicated his desire to dictate its terms to Russia in the oil contracts.

Meahwhile, Russia seems to be exerting influence over Kazakhstan’s trade before the Customs Union taking effect in several months. Concerned that its own market will become flooded with smuggled Chinese goods, Moscow is pressuring Astana to tighten controls at the Kazakhstani-Chinese border before July 1, when Russia is due to remove its checkpoints along its frontier with Kazakhstan. The Customs Union, comprising Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, will turn Khorgos into China's gateway to a market of over 170 million people. Russia is thus understandably eager to ensure rigorous controls are in place there on July 1.

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Gas Shortage - A shortage of fuel in Russia is hurting millions beyond its borders in Central Asia. Russia's government responded this week to domestic fuel shortages by hiking export fees and imposing a temporary export ban on fuel, measures that threaten to cause severe deficits in impoverished Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. As of May 1, Russia hiked the export duty on gasoline by 44 percent, a move designed to make it more profitable for fuel retailers to sell domestically than abroad. The Russian export tariff hike is as an especially rude awakening for Tajikistan, which had been hoping the tariff might be lifted altogether. The cost of filling up gas tanks is a particularly sensitive topic in Kyrgyzstan, which hosts a U.S. air base crucial to operations in nearby Afghanistan. Russia's imposition of duties on fuel exports to Kyrgyzstan early last year had a sharp knock-on effect on gas retail prices. That exacerbated nationwide discontent which culminated with the storming in April 2010 of government offices and the overthrow of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

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Anti-terror Drill - China, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan conducted a joint anti-terror drill in the restive western region Xinjiang, where anger against Beijing has led to attacks on police, state media reported on Saturday. The one-day exercise on Friday was aimed at better coordinating efforts between the countries to 'locate and crack down on 'terrorists' in the border regions", the official Xinhua news agency reported. The drill aimed to help the countries respond to the 'three evil forces' of terrorism, separatism and extremism coming from the perceived threat of Muslim separatists in Xinjiang, a Chinese counter-terrorism agency spokesman said.


Articles referred to in this post:

"杨洁篪同俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫举行会谈" (Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov)

"Россия и Китай выступили за немедленное прекращение огня в Ливии" (Russia and China appealed for an immediate ceasefire in Libya)

"Китай втягивает Россию в нефтяную войну" (China is drawing Russia into an oil war)

"Казахстан: Россия призывает навести порядок на пограничных переходах с Китаем" (Kazakhstan: Russia Pressing for Clean-Up at China Border Crossing)

"Центральная Азия начинает страдать от дефицита топлива в России" (Central Asia is beginning to suffer from a shortage of fuel in Russia)

"中吉塔三国举行联合反恐演习" (China, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan hold anti-terror drill )

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