CREES-FMSO: Arrest of Yulia Tymoshenko Draws Moscow’s Interest; Opposition Actors Continue to Face State Scrutiny in Former Soviet Union

This week Ukraine’s most visible opposition actor and ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko was removed from a Kyiv courtroom after her arrest was ordered by Judge Rodion Kireyev for “repeatedly disrupting courtroom proceedings” during her trial on abuse of power during her tenure as prime minister. Facing as much as 10 years in prison on charges of striking a politically profitable but financially crippling deal with Russian energy company Gazprom in 2009, Tymoshenko’s trial has drawn considerable attention from outside observers, largely condemnations from the British and United States governments. Many observers have called Tymoshenko’s trial and arrest a political move by her 2010 opponent and current president Viktor Yanukovych in an attempt to combat oppositional civil and political actors and consolidate his power base by squeezing Tymoshenko out of politics. The most unlikely reaction to Tymoshenko’s arrest came from the Kremlin. Despite his Party of Regions affiliation, Yanukovych has fallen out of favor with the Medvedev-Putin tandem, and his recent actions taken to curb dissent in the Ukrainian press and public sphere have only worsened the situation. News agency REGNUM reported that “the best people are afraid of the Party of Regions – Akhemtov, Firtash, others whose business is substantially linked to the price of gas.” Gas wars between Russia and Ukraine seem inevitable and, as REGNUM continues, the relationship between the Party of Regions and Russia is not as easy as it had been before. REGNUM reported that a source in Medvedev’s administration stated “the arrest will cause an international resonance and is unlikely to have positive implications for Yanukovych.” The myth of “fast friends” has been dispelled by recent developments in Ukraine, and Russia seems to be distancing itself from its man in Kyiv.

Supporters of Tymoshenko’s opposition party bloc, All-Ukrainian “Fatherland” (Vseukrayinsk’e Obyednannya Bat’kivshchyna), have also come under the scrutiny of the Ukrainian authorities. Activists immediately set up tent cities in Kyiv after Tymoshenko’s arrest was announced. In the following days, Ukrainian police forces announced they would dismantle the camps, therefore bringing another round of crackdowns on civil unrest and protest (supported by a court order by the District Administrative Court of Kyiv). Fortunately for the protestors, their fears of a night assault by Ukrainian security forces never materialized. The results have not been in Yanukovych’s favor thus far as protests have spread beyond Kyiv. Political scientist Aleksandr Medvedev believes that if the protests continue and the government continues to take a heavy-handed approach to silencing the protestors, August 24 will see ten times more supporters on Independence Square than the Independence Day festivities on August 23. Political analyst Dmitri Tulchinsky believes, however, that while the rallies may continue the number of opposition supporters will reach its peak within the next week or two.

Articles referred to in this post:

«Крещатик зачистят: от сторонников Юлии Тимошенко» (“Cleaning the Kreshchatyk [capital]: from supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko”) http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1693939?isSearch=True

«Спасет ли Путин Тимошенко?» (“Will Putin Save Tymoshenko?”) http://news.rambler.ru/10706797/?utm_source=regnum&utm_medium=tiser&utm_campaign=main

«Сторонниками Тимошенко позволили переночевать в палатках» (“Tymoshenko Supporters allowed to spend night in tents”) http://lenta.ru/news/2011/08/09/camp/

«Тимошенко: Я не ожидала такой реакции России на мой арест» (“Tymoshenko: I never expected Russia’s reaction to my arrest”) http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1433155.html