Thursday, December 22, 2011

Eurasian News Updates (Nov 27- Dec 21)

Russia-China - The possibility of gas supplies by pipeline to China depends "on the outcome of commercial negotiations," said Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Alexander Ananenkov, stressing that Chinese partners are well informed of Russia's position on this issue. "At present, Gazprom is actively working to organize the supply of additional volume of natural gas to Japan and the Korean Peninsula. Russian leaders have reached agreement with the respective political leaders of the DPRK and the Republic of Korea "- said Ananenkov. Analysts from Societe Generale believe that China in the near future will become a major importer of gas, but the vendor is not likely to be Gazprom, but instead, Turkmenistan and even the United States. From another perspective, China is challenging Russia as Turkmenistan’s main buyer of natural gas.

China does not regard Russia as a strong power and does not consider it necessary to correspond its foreign policy in the FSU with Russia. This was stated by the chief editor of "Problems of national strategy," Ajdar Kurts, speaking in Moscow at the round table "between Russia and the United States: Central and South Asia in a big game." "China did not grow into an ally against the strengthening of U.S. influence, but into a completely independent geopolitical rival in the former Soviet Union, "- said the expert. At the same round table, A. Derenikyan, the representative of the Russian Association of Cross-Border Cooperation in Tajikistan, said: "China is interested in further weakening of Russia's position in the region." He considers it possible that in future the United States and China will agree on how to share the Russian heritage in this region. With regard to this question, the head of the Ural Branch of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies (RISS) Dmitri Popov stated that Russia, U.S. and China are three distinct rival in Central Asia who recognize themselves as such. According to him, Russia's main objective should be to understand how it can take advantage of the contradictions between U.S. and China in the region. In addition, during a meeting with president Medvedev, the Russian political scientist Alexei Pushkov said that Russia needs to strengthen its position in the heart of Eurasia.

Elections to the State Duma of Russia were a reflection of the will of the Russian people, said chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman at a press briefing. "China - he concluded - respects the choice of the Russian people and supports the development of Russia on the path that corresponds to the situation in the country."

China-Uzbekistan - "Uztransgaz" and PetroChina International Company Ltd. signed a contract for the supply of Uzbek gas to China. This was said upon the beginning of the construction of the third branch of the "Uzbekistan - China" gas pipeline. Initially, natural gas from Uzbekistan will go through the second branch of the pipeline. With the completion of the construction of the third branch, the technical possibilities for the export of Uzbek gas will increase significantly. In accordance with the framework agreement, China is planning to buy from Uzbekistan annually 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The designed capacity of the third branch of the "Central Asia-China" pipeline - 25 billion cubic meters annually; the length of the pipeline within the territory of Uzbekistan - 529 miles. Deliveries of gas through the third branch of the pipeline should begin in January 2014, and reached the planned capacity in December 2015. Funding for the project (about $ 2.2 billion) will be financed by loans of the State Development Bank of China, as well as direct investments from CNPC.

China-Kyrgyzstan - Kyrgyz Natural Resources Minister Zamirbek Esenomanov recently said China is willing to help finance development of Kyrgyzstan’s mining industry, 24.kg reported November 21. The Kyrgyz ministry industry’s equipment is obsolete, Esenomanov said, adding he had reached agreement with Chinese Land and Resources Minister Xu Shaoshi on Chinese aid in upgrading a laboratory and equipping three northern geological expeditions. Meanwhile, Kyrgyz economist Zhumakadyr Akeneyev called for Kyrgyzstan to join the Russian-Kazakhstani-Belarusian Customs Union, warning that Kyrgyzstan was an appendage of the Chinese economy.

The dispatch of the U.S. Embassy in the KR of January 22, 2010 provides an analysis of the actions the Chinese government and the diplomatic corps to enhance the Chinese cultural influence in Kyrgyzstan. Recently, the PRC Embassy in Bishkek made a successful diplomatic move by agreeing to transfer 20,000 units for receiving television signals in exchange for permission to broadcast their transmission of two channels in Bishkek. One of the channels have started relaying programs on China Central Television to Russia. "This measure, as well as the Confucius centers, opened at two universities, demonstrate a significant increase of Chinese influence in Kyrgyzstan."- says the ambassador.

China-Tajikistan - The increasing number of illegal Chinese migrants in Tajikistan, a country that produces hundreds of thousands of migrants each year itself, has prompted the Tajik government to consider measures to regulate Chinese labour migration. The Tajik government says it discusses illegal migration problems with Chinese companies operating in Tajikistan and the Chinese government, including that country’s migration agency. Besides that, the government and the International Organisation for Migration plan to implement several new projects to help Chinese migrants adapt and gain access to healthcare and to regulate the flow of Chinese migrants to Tajikistan.

China-Turkmenistan - Workers have begun building a second gas refinery capable of exporting natural gas to China. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov December 13 attended the ground-breaking ceremony on the right bank of the Amu Darya River. Construction is scheduled to be completed in June 2014, Turkmenistan.ru reported. Another refinery already supplies 5 billion cu. m. of gas annually to the Turkmenistan-China pipeline. The new refinery is expected to provide 9 billion cu. m. of gas annually.

Ukraine-Tajikistan - Tajik Presidents Emomali Rakhmon and Ukranian President Viktor Yanukovych December 15 witnessed the signing of seven new agreements, Avesta.tj reported December 16. The agreements covered collaboration between their countries’ constitutional courts and Olympic committees, as well as various forms of economic co-operation. In face-to-falk talks, Yanukovych called for an extension until 2020 of a co-operation programme in trade, energy, transport, science, agriculture and other fields, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Rakhmon cited hydro-power as a venue for co-operation. In 2010, Tajik-Ukrainian trade reached US $200m (951m TJS), 65% more than in 2009.

Eurasian Economic Commission - The Russian, Belarusian and Kazakhstani presidents December 19 signed a treaty forming the Eurasian Economic Commission, RIA Novosti reported December 19. “This is the most serious step in the cause of forming the Eurasian Economic Space,” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said. Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus formed a Customs Union in 2010. Uzbek President Islam Karimov December 20 praised efforts at Eurasian integration. “The CIS has a future,” Karimov said during an informal summit of CIS heads of state. “It has to play a role as co-ordinator of our complex interaction.” “The Eurasian Union and everything else (in terms of Eurasian integration) are the natural and pre-ordained development of everything happening today in the world,” he said.

Zhanaozen Riot in Kazakhstan - The clashes between police and protesting fired oil workers in Zhanaozen, Mangistau Oblast, during Kazakhstan’s Independence Day celebrations, left 10 dead, 75 injured. The demonstrators tore down the stage and ceremonial yurts prepared for the holiday, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported. They also set fire to the Ozenmunaigaz company building, city hall and a nearby hotel, ITAR-TASS reported. The strikers, who have been demanding better wages and working conditions for seven months, objected to municipal use of Yntymak Square for the celebration, RFE/RL reported. The strikers have had a tent city on the square during their protest. According to a statement from the general prosecutor’s office, Relative calm has returned to Zhanaozen, a city of 90,000 in Western Kazakhstan, after unrest erupted December 16, and continued through the weekend. But local residents say the situation is still tense and peaceful protests were reported in Aktau and Almaty December 17 and 18. Authorities are still making mass arrests in an effort to restore order in Zhanaozen. Prime Minister Karim Massimov, meanwhile, promised to find jobs for fired oil workers who had been on strike since May, demanding better pay and benefits.


Articles referred to in this post:

"Газпром: Поставки газа в Китай зависят от переговоров" (Gazprom: Gas supply to China depends on negotiations)

"США или Туркменистан могут заменить Россию при поставках газа в Китай - аналитики" (U.S. and Turkmenistan could replace Russia to supply gas to China - analysts)

"Туркменистан: Экспортное соглашение с Китаем подрывает позиции Газпрома" (Turkmenistan: China Export Deal Undercuts Gazprom’s Leverage)

"МИД Китая: Выборы в России отразили волю народа" (Chinese Foreign Ministry: Elections in Russia reflected the will of the people)

"Эксперт: Китай стал геополитическим конкурентом России на постсоветском пространстве" (Expert: China has become a geopolitical rival to Russia in the post-Soviet space)

"Пушков: Россия должна укреплять свои позиции в центре Евразии" (Pushkov: Russia needs to strengthen its position in the heart of Eurasia)

"Эксперт: Россия должна извлечь выгоду из противоречий Китая и США в Средней Азии" (Expert: Russia should take advantage of the contradictions of China and the United States in Central Asia)

"Эксперт: США и Китай разделят наследие России в Средней Азии" (Expert: U.S. and China will share the legacy of Russia in Central Asia)

"Пекин будет закупать узбекский газ вместо российского--Новый удар по «Газпрому» на китайском направлении" (Beijing will buy Uzbek gas instead of Russian gas--New blow for "Gazprom" in the direction of China)

"WikiLeaks: Как Китай проявляет "мягкую силу" в Кыргызстане" (WikiLeaks: How China influences its "soft power" in Kyrgyzstan)

"Китай поможет Кыргызстану" (China to aid Kyrgyz)

"Таджикистан рассматривает меры по недопущению нелегальной миграции из Китая" (Tajikistan considers measures to prevent illegal migration from China)

"Туркмены строят 2-ой нефтеперегонный завод" (Turkmens begin building 2nd gas refinery to serve China)

"Янукович, Рахмон обсудили сотрудничество" (Yanukovych, Rakhmon pledge Ukrainian-Tajik co-operation)

"Россия, Казахстан, Беларусь создают Евразийскую экономическую комиссию" (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus form Eurasian Economic Commission)

"Каримов хвалит евразийскую интеграцию" (Karimov praises Eurasian integration effort)

"Столкновения полиции и демонстрантов в Жанаозене" (Zhanaozen police-demonstrator clashes lead to deaths)

"Жанаозен: ситуация нормализуется, говорят власти" (Zhanaozen returning to normal, authorities say)

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