Sunday, October 30, 2011

Eurasian News This Week

Russia-China - Russia insists that the price of gas supplies to China should be close to the price to the West. This was announced October 24 in Moscow by Russian Deputy Energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky. However, he found it difficult to predict whether Russia and China can sign a long-term gas supply contract by the end of the year. He also said that the differences between the parties are still in the price of gas supplies. Yanovski explained that the formula value is defined, but Russia and China can not agree on the size of the coefficients in the formula.

According to the deputy chairman of "Gazprom" Alexander Medvedev, Russia and China will hold one or two rounds of talks on Russian natural gas supplies to China by the end of this year. "The talks on gas supplies are entering the final stage, as stated Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during the recent visit to China," said Medvedev. Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said that soon Russia and China will hold the "road map" negotiations, which will include an analysis of the balance of consumption, sources of supply, and "Gazprom"'s role in the supply structure.

Russia-Kazakhstan - A Russian-Kazakhstani uranium enrichment center will begin operating in Novouralsk, Russia, in 2012, Sergei Kiriyenko, CEO of Russia’s Rosatom said October 28, according to Novosti-Kazakhstan. The Kazakhstani partners will gain experience in enriching uranium while Russia will acquire access to “the cheapest and most profitable uranium deposit in the world,” Kiriyenko said.

Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev supported Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s idea of a Eurasian Union in an October 25 Izvestia article. Nazarbayev wrote he had always considered Kazakhstan and Russia the “locomotives of Eurasian integration.” Despite this mutual intention of accelerating the process of integration, the number of ethnic-Russian emigrants from Kazakhstan to Russia has tripled. According to the representative of the Federal Migration Service in Kazakhstan, "those leaving are literate people, including professors and PhDs."

Russian Language in Central Asia - Russian is still widespread in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but its use is fading in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, said Bakhodir Radzhabov, a Russian-language teacher at the Navoi University of Language and Literature in Tashkent. “At the beginning of the 1990s, some gave up using Russian altogether because of the upsurge of national movements and anti-Russian sentiment, but close to the middle of (that) decade, this all died down,” he said. “Now these disputes are starting again.”

Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan - The Kazakhstani parliament’s upper chamber October 27 approved US $3m (444m KZT or 135m KGS) in aid for Kyrgyzstan’s military. Under the agreement, Kazakhstan will supply armoured transport vehicles, automobiles and mortars to Kyrgyzstan, according to the chamber’s committee on international relations, defence and security. Kyrgzystan promised not to give away or let a third party use the Kazakhstani equipment.

Kyrgyz Acting Prime Minister Omurbek Babanov October 27 ordered the State Customs Service to reject further imports of coal from Kazakhstan’s Kulansk mines. Babanov issued the order one day after Kyrgyz customs officers learned incoming Kazakhstani coal has background radiation 12-15 times higher than normal. He also ordered the Energy Ministry and the Electricheskie Stantsii Company to return all un-used Kulansk coal and to terminate their contracts with the mines. Babanov will order a new tender for alternative coal suppliers if necessary, the Kyrgyz government press office said.

Kazakh Economy - Kazakhstan has enjoyed a “strong” economic recovery but should address banking-system weaknesses, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in an October 28 statement summarising a mission’s findings. The IMF projects Kazakhstani GDP to grow 6.5% in 2011 but said annualised inflation of 8.75% by the end of September exceeded the government’s target. “Banks’ balance sheets remain vulnerable,” the IMF found, calling those weaknesses “cause for concern.” The IMF recommended “timely and decisive measures” like “forceful action to ensure proper loan valuation.”

Meanwhile, the Kazakhstani government has hired former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to advise it on economic reforms. Blair spokesman Matthew Doyle confirmed that Blair has formed an “advisory group” to implement such reforms. Doyle denied reports the deal was worth up to £8m (US $13m or 1.9 billion KZT) per year.

Tajikistan Drug Trafficking Threats - Since Tajikistan assumed sole responsibility for its border security in 2004, the number of drug seizures has decreased and problems have arisen, analysts say, but some point to signs of improvement. In 2006, authorities seized about 3.5 tonnes of drugs, down from nearly 7 tonnes annually when Russian troops patrolled the border, according to UN reports. The annual tonnage of seizures under Tajik control remained virtually unchanged until 2010, when authorities confiscated 3.9 tonnes, up 10.5% from 2009. And Tajikistan’s Drug Control Agency, the AKN, reports in the first nine months of 2011, authorities have confiscated 3.5 tonnes of drugs and 7.3 tonnes of drug-making components.

It is necessary to have an atmosphere of trust and co-operation across Central Asia, Sukhrob Kahhorov, a representative of the Border Management Programme in Central Asia, said. For Tajikistan to curtail drug trafficking, it needs to strengthen its border not only with Afghanistan but with its other neighbours as well, said Mair Dodosh, a researcher of border-zone transport and trade. “The government is gradually becoming aware of this,” he said.

Turkmenistan-EU - European Union Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger welcomes the signing of a package of gas agreements between Azerbaijan and Turkey. According to The European Political Newspaper, Oettinger stressed the importance of this deal for the EU. "Turkey as a transit country for gas will benefit the citizens of the European Union", he said.

"The gas from Azerbaijan will be distributed throughout the EU internal market. However, the export route of Azerbaijan gas has not yet been selected. But whatever the route will be, there must be arrangements for the supply of 'new' gas from Turkmenistan ", said Ottinger. Note that the EU plans to get access to Turkmen gas across the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia and Iran. Moscow and Tehran oppose the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline.


Articles referred to in this post:

"Россия хочет заставить Китай платить за газ по западным ценам" (Russia intends to force China to pay for Russian gas at Western prices)

"Россия и Китай обсудят поставки российского газа" (Russia and China to discuss Russian gas supplies)

"Российско-казахский центр обогащения урана откроется в 2012" (Russian-Kazakh uranium enrichment centre to open in 2012)

"Назарбаев поддержал идею Путина о Евразийском Союзе" (Nazarbayev backs Putin’s Eurasian Union idea)

"Русский исход из Казахстана утроился" (Russian exodus from Kazakhstan has tripled)

"Русский язык все еще важен в странах Средней Азии" (Russian language still important in Central Asia)

"Казахский сенат одобрил военную помощь Кыргызстану" (Kazakh senate approves military aid to Kyrgyzstan)

"Кыргызстан отказался от радиоактивного казахского угля" (Kyrgyzstan rejects radioactive Kazakh coal)

"МВФ нашел слабые места в банковской системе Казахстана" (IMF warns of Kazakh banking-system weakness)

"Блэр - советник казахов в экономических реформах" (Blair to advise Kazakhstan on economic reforms)

"Таджикистан укрепляет границу с Афганистаном" (Tajikistan strengthens border with Afghanistan)

"ЕС приемлем любой маршрут доставки газа из Туркмении в обход России и Ирана" (EU accepts any route of gas supplies from Turkmenistan bypassing Russia and Iran)

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