At the heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan is closely connected with the
rest of the region. In fact, it shares borders with five separate
states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikstan, Afghanistan, and
Turkmenistan. As one might imagine, Uzbekistan is presented with a
variety of security concerns as a result. One transnational concern
currently seems to be of the highest priority for the government of
Uzbekistan, and that is the increasing amount of attempted illegal
migrations from its southern neighbor Afghanistan. What appears to be
especially troubling for Uzbekistan is the possibility that Islamist
extremists might be attempting to insert themselves into this migration,
with the intent of bringing violent Jihad to the regime of Islam
Karimov and the people of Uzbekistan. The issue presented to the scene
of U.S. foreign policy, then, is whether or not to answer Mr. Karimov’s
pleas for assistance in stopping these problematic migrations.
In 2013, the government of Uzbekistan has seen a considerable number of
attempted illegal migrations from Afghanistan. In March 2013, a group
of about ten Afghans attempted [1] to cross the Amu Darya River (which
separates Uzbekistan and Afghanistan) from the northern Afghan province
of Balkh into Uzbekistan. According to reports, the group ignored the
orders from the Uzbek border guards to halt, resulting in the deaths of
three of the Afghans. Uzbek authorities from the National Security
Service (NSS) claim that the number of Afghans was roughly 30 and all
civilian, while Afghan border police claim that the group was smaller
and that the victims were police. While the specific details of this
particular incident seem to vary between the Uzbek and Afghan statements
[2], this was just one out of several incidents that have happened so
far this year. At the time of the report from the Uzbek NSS, there had
been 22 recorded border violations, resulting in the detention of 106
Afghans. This increase in attempted illegal migration clearly has the
Uzbek border guards on high alert, but why?
There is the possibility that these illegal Afghan migrants have ties
to Islamist extremist organizations, which could certainly explain the
Uzbek authorities’ denying these individuals access into the country.
What if those illegally migrating are armed, unbeknownst to the Uzbek
border guards? In 2012, a weapons [3] cache belonging to the Islamist
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was seized by coalition operatives in
Kunduz province, north-eastern Afghanistan (also not far from the border
with Afghanistan-Uzbekistan border). If armed IMU militants were able
to infiltrate one of these migrant groups and freely enter Uzbekistan,
the results could clearly be devastating, especially if they are able to
return and entrench themselves within the Fergana Valley. The Uzbek
government has a long and troubled history with the IMU, a terrorist
organization which has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks
within Uzbekistan and elsewhere. It seems that Uzbekistan is still wary
of the organization. According to a statement [4] made in March 2013
by an unnamed source from Uzbekistan’s NSS, the IMU has recently begun
to increase its recruitment and training of militants from its new base
of operations along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Mr. Karimov also
fears the growing number of mercenary fighters from the former Soviet
Union who have been migrating to side with the violent Jihadist
opposition in Syria. What particularly bothers him about these
mercenaries is that they appear to be so willing and able to move from
one country to another (often at the behest of Islamist sheikhs), with
ease, to bring violence against states experiencing crises. With the
expected 2014 withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan coming ever
closer, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states are showing their
concern. Who will contain the re-emergence of militant Islam from
Afghanistan and Pakistan? Will it be possible for Uzbekistan to secure
its border with Afghanistan?
Fortunately for Uzbekistan, Mr. Karimov chose to align the country with
the recently-formed Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Uzbekistan’s delegates participated [5] in the SCO’s Regional
Anti-Terrorist Structure’s (RATS) conference in October 2013, at which
the future prospects of security in Afghanistan were discussed. From
the looks of it, the RATS delegates and experts spent time formulating
and predicting the potential threats and challenges to the security of
the whole of Central Asia leading up to and following the U.S.
withdrawal. Despite the potential for ensuring regional security in
collaboration with RATS, Mr. Karimov is currently appealing [6] to
Washington for assistance, particularly in the form of modern armaments
to replace the relatively out-dated soviet-era arsenal currently
utilized by the regime. For some reason, it seems that Mr. Karimov is
not entirely confident in the ability of the RATS framework to safeguard
the borders of Uzbekistan against the very real threat of militant
Islam.
It certainly wouldn’t run contrary to the interests of the United
States to provide Uzbekistan with logistical and tactical support to
combat these new developments in illegal migration. However, it could
prove costly and harmful to supply Mr. Karimov’s regime with modern,
U.S. weapons technology, especially if he does not intend to genuinely
adhere to Western conventions of civil society. Instead of pursuing
U.S. support, couldn’t the Karimov administration instead seek
assistance from the SCO: RATS, which is presently coordinated and
supplied by the cooperative efforts of Russia and China? Still, we
ought to stand together as allies in monitoring and effectively dealing
with the migrations of violent Jihadist groups throughout Central Asia,
since they do present a clear threat to Eurasian border security.
- Sabykov, Murat. “Uzbekistan: Pogranichniki ubili afganskikh politseyskikh?” Eurasianet. March 21 2013 http://russian.eurasianet.org/node/59958
- “Uzbekskiye pogranichniki zastrelili troikh politseyskikh iz Afganistana” Росбалт. March 18, 2013. http://www.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2013/03/18/1106712.html
- Saadi, Shakar. “Podozrevayemyy IDU arestovan za kontrabandu oruzhiya Central Asia Online Nov 16, 2012. http://centralasiaonline.com/ru/articles/caii/features/main/2012/11/16/feature-01
- Kasymali’eva, Aida. “IDU gotovit udar po Tsentral'noy Azii etoy vesnoy?” March 15, 2013. http://rus.azattyk.org/content/kyrgyzstan_central_asia_security/24929621.html
- “Afganistan-2014: perspektivy razvitiya situatsii v IRA, vyzovy i ugrozy bezopasnosti Tsentral'noy Azii v kontetkste vyvoda Mezhdunarodnykh sil bezopasnosti” Shanghai Cooperative Organization: Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure. October 10, 2013.
- "EurasiaNet: Karimov dal ponyat', chto khotel by zamenit' sovetskoye vooruzheniye na amerikanskoye" Regnum Information Agency. March 04, 2013. http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1631971.html
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